Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a ability enabled by current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a automatic firearm opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a premise familiar among international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.
