A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the current situation. They writes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
